10 Jul 2022 SPX Weekly

Accuracy: 24/29 (82.76%)

SPX Above 3636- Correct

Last Week

It was pretty much spot on with the continuation of the momentum the week before. SPX took off pretty well last week.

SPX Daily Candle Chart

On the daily candle chart, we have an entire week of green candles last week with an uncertain Friday closure. It seems that we're now in the middle of a longer term regression trendline.

SPX 30 minute chart

On the 30 minute chart, we can identify quite a few support and resistance areas. Which seems to suggest the current 3900 area might act as a potential resistance.

Next Week

It's seems to me that it's going to be a make or break week. Much like a coin flip situation. We're currently near a resistance point, so it's break upwards or reject downwards situation.

SPX Daily Candle

And the reason for that is also due to, once again, CPI. At this point, everyone is just waiting for CPI, which is a key indicator to inflation, to start reversing. This is going to be the key indicator to the market direction as well.

So for next week, we'll probably either head towards 4200 or 3636. And we're now almost right smack in the middle.

Economic Calendar

With things only starting to happen on Wednesday onwards, it seems Monday and Tuesday would be much smaller movements anticipating for the big CPI data release on Wednesday. Thursday's jobless claims and PPI might have another continuation wave too.

Prediction

Everything seems to me that it's a coin flip situation to put a prediction. Which is a 50/50 situation. I think this is the first time I'll intentionally skip a prediction because logically doing a 50/50 prediction will kind of reduce my stats.

Also a good reminder to self that in trading, it's not only about buy and sell or long and short. Not doing anything is also an option if your analysis tells you it's not going to benefit you anyway.

So no prediction this week for me.

Invest / Trade

Invest wise, the same approach doesn't change. Every month, dollar cost average a bit. In a long run, which is what invest is all about, we're talking about many years to go, things will average out well.

Trade wise, maybe can consider doing some 1-2 DTE IronCondor to expire or close before CPI. Or just sit and wait for CPI to follow the trend and momentum it creates.

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This SPX Weekly update as part of my own analysis and perspective of how I feel the market will be moving. This is not any financial advise or recommendation. It's just my own journaling and guesses to try to predict what's going to happen next week.

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