11 June 2023 SPX Weekly

Accuracy: 65/71 (91.55%)

SPX above 4200 - Correct!

Paper Trade

Last Weeks Paper Trade - Iron Condor

SPX closed 4298, which is within the profit zone. I kinda think a 1.5:1 risk reward gives quite a good trade expectancy but it's just from observation. Maybe the next think to think about is to track these numbers properly to see how is the profitability statistics. Although it's paper trade and simulated before market open where price might not be that accurate and updated, I think there's still some learning points just from tracking them.

Let's start with this one: +395 (1/1 = 100%)

Last Week

SPX pretty much falls into one of my expected move, where I think it will struggle near the 4300 area.

SPX Daily Candle

Starting with the daily candle view, we see SPX testing this 4300 and showing some resistance on the Friday candle. Technical wise, I really think it's quite over extended although the momentum is bullish.

SPX 30 min

Zooming into the 30 minute chart, the last few days have been consolidating and testing the 4300. It broke above 4300 on Friday open gapping up but it pulled back down to test 4300 support.

From the Friday rejection itself, it really looks like a false break in making. No confirmation yet until we see price move below 4300 once again.

Economic Calendar

We're having quite afew catalyst this coming week. CPI and FOMC on the same week again. Basically other than Monday, every other day there's potential volatility event. As I mentioned before, usually no news is good news. With so many unknown news, I would think some of them will move the market.

To gel this to my technical perspective, one of these events will cause the correction downwards. But I do think the uptrend is still valid on the larger timeframe, so it'll probably be just a correction before going higher.

Next Week

SPX 2H chart

We're already at the 4300 area testing for break or reject, the next upside is probably near 4400. Since I'm leaning more towards the downside, 4200 will be the support area to look at.

Simply, if we break up with good news - 4400 here we go.

Else, we should find 4200 and see we bounce there or go to the next support which is around 4100.

Prediction

Counter trend prediction, not the usual but just think it's too overextended this time.

SPX below 4400

Paper Trade

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This Paper Trade is purely for entertainment and information sharing purposes. I'm not trading this trade myself nor am I advicing to put on this trade. Also, the dollar value provided by optionstrat.com might not be accurate. So this is just for fun reference only.

Actually a similar trade like last week would make alot of sense still.

OptionStrat Iron Condor

To be really honest, I find it quite tight still due to the low vix environment we're at now. But I think this 1.6:1 risk reward is still quite acceptable. I tried to stretch further but that seems like the furthest strike I feel acceptable.

So the thesis is really a slight correction, towards 4200 but close above it ideally above 4220.

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This SPX Weekly update as part of my own analysis and perspective of how I feel the market will be moving. This is not any financial advise or recommendation. It's just my own journaling and guesses to try to predict what's going to happen next week.

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