12 Feb 2023 SPX Weekly - CPI Again

Accuracy: 49/54 (90.74%)

SPX below 4300 - Correct

Paper Trade

Did a credit bear call play last week at 4100/4095, since SPX close 4090 this paper play result in max profit on expiry.

This ITM did give me some inspiration, more specifically on thr 5 wide. Its like drawing an absolute line and let the trade play out itself. Given the 1:2 risk reward ratio, it means I only need more than 34% win rate to get positive expectancy.

Kinda like the inspiration and learning from such paper trades, will try to do it morr regularly.

Newborn

Just adding a small update. The reason of the delayed post is because my baby boy just delivered. So I'll have to keep it short for this post.

Last Week

SPX made few lower highs not able to go higher and eventually broke downwards through the short term uptrend support line. This kinda align with my expectation of a potential pull back.

Economic Calendar

Basically the same old CPI once again. Personally, I'm leaning bullish on this CPI as the inflation continue to go down. But also aware that any surprise will cause bearish moves.

Next Week

Looks pretty clean that the 3 areas is on 4200, 4100 and 4000 respectively. Although I'm bullish on CPI, the most recent momentum is downtrend. The 4000 really catch my attention to be the target to pullback to.

Prediction

Keeping it short, need to attend to my newborn. Continuation of most recent downtrend.

SPX below 4200

Skip Paper Play, no time.