13 Nov 2022 SPX Weekly - Bull is Here

Accuracy: 39/45 (86.67%)

SPX above 3630 - Correct

Last Week

I did some prediction based on CPI that it should slowly get better. This latest CPI was surprisingly much better than forecast and market is crazy over it.

Look at that Thursday candle breaking up and above 3900 which I marked as a key resistance area before. Friday we even had some more continuation of momentum upwards.

On this daily candle chart, we see clearly the next area above would be the downtrend resistance trendline which marks about 4080 area on projection.

On the 30 minute chart, we see some very interesting action going on. Before FOMC, we were going well on an uptrend bouncing off a support trendline. Then on FOMC we broke downwards finding support at 3750 area. Last week right before CPI it supported on this new upwards trendline before rocketing up and broke through 3900.

All these areas are interesting to note for future price action potentially coming back to find support.

Next Week

As usual lets draw some potential scenarios.

Best case (green) we run up to the larger timeframe downtrend trendline resistance.

Neutral case (yellow) we come back to test 3900 are then bounce off to go higher.

Worse case (red) we break below 3900 and find the next support area.

Economic Calendar

We've got a long list of economic events (2-3 stars) going on next week. But after the big FOMC and CPI, alot of these are pretty small events. Highlighted those that could potentially have more impact than the rest.

FOMC speakers always is one of the potential movers in this inflationary times. Among the entire list, PPI and Jobless claims would be the slightly larger potential movers. But again compared to FOMC and CPI, it's really relatively insignificant.

Prediction

Keeping it short, since no major events going on. Basically look at my scenarios for next week. Prepare for the worse.

SPX above 3800