17 May 22 SPX Weekly - Reversal?

Accuracy: 18/22 (81.81%)

SPX below 4300 - Correct

Got correct for last week prediction as the bear continues. Was enjoying my long weekend as there's a public holiday in Singapore. I'll also skip this week's prediction since I'm kinda late but will just give an analyse update as I always do to keep myself update with the market.

Last Week

It went more bearish that I thought it would be having all the FOMC related events.

SPX pushed down pretty hard for the start of the week but manage to bounce off 3850 area. The downtrend not only continues but it seems to get steeper.

Also note that SPX has since corrected 19.9% from all time high.

On the lower timeframe, we see an interesting consolidation forming in the 4000-4050 area even up till this week's Monday trading. The dip below 3900 happened within 1-2 days and gapped back up into the range immediately after.

Upcoming Week (This Week)

Since it's late that I write this week's post, as of the time I'm writing SPX is already approaching to break the upside of the above range in premarket.

I use the SPX500USD ticker as usual to see premarket SPX prices, it's not exactly the same as SPX but good enough reference for premarket data.

We can see SPX already breaking upwards of the previously drawn range. So from past 3-4 trading days perspective it's kinda reversing into a short term uptrend now. But from the daily candle perspective it's still at a downtrend.

This reversal has been pretty strong but it's nearing the downtrend resistance line. We have to see if this resistance holds or it will continue to break upwards. Potentially around 4100-4140 is where we want to watch for, resist or break. Next level is gonna be the 4300 area.

Economic Calendar

The FOMC members continue speaking early this week which continues to stir and manipulate market moves. Biggest event will be what Powell says later during market open. We'll probably get some premarket signs from the 2 FOMC members but as of now premarket is pretty bullish still.

Trades

Just to update my trades, didn't have a lot of trades as I'm kinda slowing down my pace in this bearish mood. My 4300 Call BWB did eventually expired and I also added a 3850 Put BWB which also expired last Friday. So I kept the premium collected for those BWB.

I might look to put a call BWB on the 4300 again as it's a pretty good resistance area. Will probably check after today since Powell is making his speech.

On the longer term note, I also added shares on AAPL MSFT GOOGL TSLA FB NVDA last week as I remain positive on their much longer term potential. Basically DCA monthly when they dip.