19 Mar 2023 SPX Weekly - FOMC

Accuracy: 53/59 (89.83%)

SPX below 4100 - Correct!

Paper Trade

SPX land right in the middle pretty much as what I expected, max profit of $430.

Seems like its simple enough as long as I keep risk reward ratio around 1.5:1. With that risk reward, need to maintain a win rate of more than 66.66% to maintain positive expectancy. Shall continue playing for a bit to observe if there are any more inspiration or interesting scenarios that could happen.

Last Week

Below 4100 basically SPX moved pretty within expected range.

Start with looking at the daily candle chart, we're on this downtrend bounce up slightly.

We do see more bullish momentum for the week since the US government is stepping in fast to response to the bank run. But things are still developing as 2 more banks got involved this week which I believe that's why we got a red friday close.

Economic Calendar

One of the biggest mover once again, FOMC. This time I believe it's going to move pretty huge depending on what the Fed's decide and what Powell gonna say in the press conference. Mainly because of the latest bank run saga that's still developing now. It's basically the new monster after we have a long battle with the inflation.

Generally, we should be expecting more volatility and uncertainty at least for this coming week as the situation is pretty new and developing everyday.

Next Week

Pretty clear area of support and resistance draw with the 3 usual different scenarios.  Note the nearest trend is actually uptrend dipping at 3900.

Some random reflection

Not sure why but it seems to get easier and easier on these SPX weekly analysis. Maybe because I do it consistently every week, I improved. Or maybe I'm getting complacent over time. Hopefully is I'm improving, means the consistent weekly effort does pay off.

This is also something I start to realise and appreciate that if you start doing something and stay committed to it for a period of time, you will see some improvement or results. Another example I had was that I start building my 0 DTE SPX trading bot since August 2022 and now it's fully automated. The effort spent to build it week over week for several months did pay off.

If you're still thinking about starting something or contemplating on anything, the best advice is to just get started. Start small, start simple and stay committed. Look back 3 months later, you'll be impressed what you've achieved.

Prediction

So with such high volatility, I'd take the safer support on uptrend.

SPX above 3800

Paper Trade

Taking a slightly further strikes for this IronCondor with 3850 to 4100. Still got a risk reward of 658:382 (1.72:1), keep it simple.