2 Apr 2023 SPX Weekly

Accuracy: 55/61 (90.16%)

SPX above 3800 - Correct!

Paper Trade

Last Week's Paper Trade

Missed by just a little with SPX closing 4109, this paper trade will be a loss of $670. I think it's a good trade still, we can't be expecting to always win. The direction of play was correct but the market was stronger than expected. Anyway its paper trade, keep the fun going.

Last Week

SPX Daily Candle Chart

SPX had such a strong rally for almost the entire week. It totally looks like it's continuing this reversal uptrend as I already draw last week on the higher lows and higher highs.

Something different this time, lets also look at the QQQ chart. Sometimes it gives us additional data points on how the market is moving.

QQQ Daily Candle Chart

I recall many months back I did share QQQ chart before, those downtrend fibonacci levels are so consistent back then. Look at where the current price is, it's already on a higher high position. Totally looks like reversal is confirmed and we might be expecting a bull market moving on.

Economic Calendar

Usual minor regular events, don't think it will cause any big movements. Note that it's a short week though with Good Friday.

Early Earnings Awareness

Just to give a heads up, we're approaching the earnings season soon. Usually it starts with the banking sector, this upcoming one will be around mid February. Then followed by the mega cap towards the end of February.

Seasonal Trend

Throwing in something new since it's April.

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24SPX

This is a seasonality chart from stockcharts.com that I used to reference. Note that April to July have been historically statistically more bullish. Same goes for November. It's just a seasonal pattern that occurs, simply take reference and hope the historical pattern play out the same.

You can try yourself from the link. The above screenshot I took was for 10 years, it can be adjusted to different years. Not super conclusive but something to be aware of.

Next Week

SPX Daily Candle Chart - Support Resistance Area

I think it should be pretty straightforward that we're following on this uptrend but I do expect it slow down towards 4200 since it's the previous high. It could even break above 4200. So 4000-4200 (Yellow) would be the most probable to me.

(Orange) is likely the nearest support if we pull back towards 3900, I don't expect a strong pullback to get back to (Red) 3800 at the current level.

(Green) is the super bullish case, also upside resistance. I don't see any super good reason for the market to rally all the way through 4300 in the shorter week ahead.

Prediction

SPX above 3900

Paper Trade

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This Paper Trade is purely for entertainment and information sharing purposes. I'm not trading this trade myself nor am I advicing to put on this trade. Also, the dollar value provided by optionstrat.com might not be accurate. So this is just for fun reference only.

I wanted to try setting up something near the (Yellow) case between 4000-4200. But because it's a shorter week, the expiry is Thursday instead of Friday. Hence the strikes are nearer, resulting in lesser credit and lousier risk reward ratio.

So I'll skip for this week.

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This SPX Weekly update as part of my own analysis and perspective of how I feel the market will be moving. This is not any financial advise or recommendation. It's just my own journaling and guesses to try to predict what's going to happen next week.

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