2 July 2023 SPX Weekly - Fly

Accuracy: 65/72 (90.28%)

SPX below 4400 - Wrong!

Changes and Updates on SPX Weekly

Before I go into my usual analysis, just wanna give an update on why I missed 2 weeks of SPX weekly and also some changes to it. I've been writing SPX weekly for more than a year now and it has benefitted me alot on reading the market. Much of it have become very subconscious and I start to feel like I'm repeating a lot of things every week as many of it goes around the same few market sentiments and analysis.

So moving on I'll be writing it more casually and not weekly basis. Will still continue the SPX Weekly naming though.

Before

Instead of labeling it Last Week, I'll just put before.

Since my last SPX weekly, SPX were just breaking the 4300 mark and I was expecting a possible pullback. Instead it broke even higher beyond 4400.

While it did pull back subsequently, 4300 became the support to reject before going even higher last week. Specifically on Friday, SPX gapped up quite significantly and moved above the previous high of 4450.

On a zoomed out view with the daily candle chart, we see the current rally is pretty strong. The recent small pullback to 4300 might be a sign of slowing down towards 4500. Market don't go in one direction, it often takes break pulling back before moving further.

Economic Calendar

That's for the entire month of July, starting with Independence Day.

First half of July we having FOMC minutes and CPI, although these event have been smaller volatility than it used to be but they are still the major events to move the market.

Towards the end of July we having the Fed interest rate decision which could be a key market mover.

Upcoming

With what's upcoming, I'll take one more zoom out to the weekly chart.

On the upside it's basically one of the previous significant high before the all time high around 4600. If we continue to grind higher, this area should see some resistance.

On the downside, I don't think we expect major bear moves with the current momentum. It might just go sideways and slight pullback towards the yellow support trendline.

It might also move faster than I expect, e.g. go towards 4600 then come down towards the yellow support trendline. Basically these 2 are the key areas moving on.

No longer predicting since I'm not sure when I will write next. At least for the next 2-3 weeks I think market will stay within 4300-4600.