2 Oct 2022 SPX Weekly - New Low

Accuracy: 33/39 (84.61%)

SPX below 3840 - Correct

Last Week

We tested the previous lowest point made in June and effectively broke downwards with a new low close on Friday.

Looking closer into the 30 minute chart, ever since the Friday 2 weeks ago we broke downwards, we pretty much stayed in the range of 3600-3750 for the past week until Friday we broked below 3600 and finally close there.

This reassured the downtrend momentum is continuing on the nearest timeframe and also the daily timeframe.

Next Week

Now that we've broke the previous lowest point, it would be a trigger to look further back for where the next potential support lies.

So for zooming out, we look at the SPX Weekly chart and we can see the next nearest support is actually pre-covid high of around the 3400 area. This area potentially is a 30% drop from the peak. Now that we're just below 3600, this 3400 area although might not be that reachable within next week but never say never. It seem likely we are approaching there.

Drawing out the potential support and resistance on the 30 minute chart. 3750 seems the key resistance to break before we see any clear sign of reversal from this downtrend momentum.

Economic Calendar

From the economic calendar for next week, it actually looks pretty similar to last week. More continuation of FOMC, interest rates and inflation related sentiments.

So I'd probably expect a similar ranging week ahead, whether it goes slightly up or slightly down depends on the actual outcome of these activities.

Misc - Upcoming Earnings & BTC Reference

Just want to throw some misc info here. First of all, we're on a new month October now and we're heading towards the next wave of earnings towards the end of October. Although this is not exactly a 'next week' related topic but it's good to be aware of whats coming ahead. I like to make my own speculation and anticipation on these info sometimes.

For example if I think this next wave of earnings is going to move the market upwards, next 1-2 weeks might be where we could potentially see a bottom. At least this is the storyline I'd be thinking along.

Another misc item to share is BTC.

Sometimes, I do take a look at BTC chart for a very tiny reference. Especially for weekend since the stock market is closed, crypto market is still moving. Stock market and Crypto market now moves quite closely in terms of direction. Not so in terms of the chart trend.

Another reason is Crypto continues trading over the weekend since its 24/7. Although the volume over the weekend is small, sometimes if something happens in the weekends, stock market is closed while crypto market will react first. So from the past 2 days it seems things are still pretty sideways on the current low area.

Prediction

I think from my above info put together, it's pretty clear to me I'll follow the downtrend momentum here.

SPX below 3750