21 Aug 2022 SPX Weekly

Accuracy: 28/33 (84.85%)

SPX above 4080 - Correct

Last Week

SPX kind of played out to my story line. FOMC meeting minutes created an opportunity to pullback the market.

SPX daily candle chart

On the daily chart, it rejected nicely on the downtrend resistance line on the FOMC meeting minutes release. Feels so expected right? So we had a good run up from the bottom and now it seems like we closed Friday with a pretty solid red candle.

Also note that this resistance area also coincides around the fibonacci 61.8% area I mentioned last week. The good thing though is that we did make a higher high giving a slightly positive market sentiment moving forward.

Zoom in to 30 minute chart. Last week pretty much closed slightly below where it started with the last 3 days pushing lower lows and lower highs. We're still above the bullish run from the CPI release.

Next Week

SPX 30 minute chart

Drawing a regression trendline on the past few weeks we see a very neat upwards channel with Friday slightly breaking the downside of the channel. This might be a sign of a pullback before we can continue to go higher.

This past few weeks bullish run has been pretty strong and we should be aware that we don't expect this to keep going. The market will always wants to pull back time to time, which I always relate to the smart money concepts and market manipulation.

SPX 30 minute fibonacci

Drawing a Fibonacci on the recent run up, we see the few key fib area coincides with some recent support areas. Near 4100, 4022 and 3020. In a 1 week ahead technical perspective, I do anticipate a pullback. Just not sure how far it will go.

Economic Calendar

Next week's economic activities are several important but not super critical events like CPI and FOMC. These are just going to be small little news for market manipulators to move the market in the shorter timeframe.

Continuing from the FOMC minutes perspective, it seems like the direction is towards the downside for now.

Prediction

I do feel I have certain bias somehow in this analysis that market will pullback slightly. It might be experience, it might be gut feel. Whatever it is, by doing this weekly analysis did somehow improve my sense to the market. So long as I keep improving and making right guesses, this will slightly help my read on the market and hopefully have the slight edge in trading.

SPX below 4400

I also realise this contradicts with 'following the trend' but sometimes trend has a timeframe too. We are on an uptrend in the lower timeframe but we still rejected off a resistance on the higher timeframe.

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This SPX Weekly update as part of my own analysis and perspective of how I feel the market will be moving. This is not any financial advise or recommendation. It's just my own journaling and guesses to try to predict what's going to happen next week.

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