23 April 2023 SPX Weekly - Mega Cap Earnings

Accuracy: 58/64 (90.62%)

SPX above 3948 - Correct!

Paper Trade

SPX closed 4133 which falls in the max loss zone. 2nd time losing on this Inverse Iron Condor paper trade. Makes me kinda feel not the normal iron condor has better odds. Might do backtest on this sometime, like 4 DTE monday entry friday expire 10-15 delta kind.

Last Week

On the daily candle, We kinda did get a slight pullback and bouncing on this uptrend trendline. It also seems that this 4130 support is a previous area of resistance.

Zooming in, we could see a new shorter timeframe trendline (White). We can also see the previous 4130 resistance quite clearly in this perspective.

Economic Events

Several inflation news to watch but I think the highlights is not here, these are relatively smaller events. Maybe Friday's PCE might a bit more move. Overall shouldn't be huge volatility from the econimic events.

Mega Cap Earnings

The usual first mega cap earnings week, includes many big names too. TSLA last week took the lead and dropped almost 10% after earnings. Next week with all the mega cap earnings, it'll be interesting to see how the few AI competitors and AI related companies fair in this AI hyped times.

Generally we expect market to be mostly moved by these earnings releases next week.

Next Week

Green - Best case, SPX take the current bounce and proceed higher potentially breaking up above 4195.

Yellow - Some more pullback may look for 4080 as the previous low and also previous support turn resistance turn support.

Orange - If we see abit more bearishness, this previous gap up which coincides with 4000 might be the next target.

Red - Pretty extreme bearish case, 3950. Not expecting anywhere near here but just noting it down.

Prediction

I lean more Green and Yellow case, market is having pretty decent uptrend momentum. If there's no super surprisingly bearish events or earnings I think we might approach more towards the Green scenario.

SPX above 4080

Paper Trade

Played with the optionstrat abit and came to this unbalance iron condor that kinda fit well in what I expect for next week. Potential break above 4195 yet if it pulls back it's still breakeven. It's only about 50 points of losing zone that makes this inverse iron condor variant attractive that I keep trying again and again. Let's see how it plays out.