24 Apr 2022 SPX Weekly - Mega Earnings

Accuracy: 16/20 (80%)

SPX below 4455 - Correct

Last Week

The downtrend continues despite a false reversal early on of the week. Seems like Powell's speech set it off on Thursday to finish the week with 2 big red candles.

The bearish momentum is so strong and fast that it broke the Fib 61.8 level that everyone who does technical analysis on the chart mentioned about.

On the 30 minutes chart, we see the selling off in the last 2 days so consistent and strong. Before that, the fib levels are still pretty respected. Despite TSLA having good earnings carrying up the market a little, it seems Powell overwrites all the positivity.

Upcoming Week

Looking towards the left side of the daily chart.

Where SPX closed on Friday is potentially a support/resistance area previously. Although I'd say it's not a very significant or strong one, the next level is gonna be the previous low around 4160 area.

Having it moved down so fast with that 2 very big candles, I'd expect some slowdown in the momentum on this ongoing downtrend. That would lead to what's potentially gonna happen next week.

Economic Calendar

From the economic calendar, after having so much of FOMC in the past few weeks. We finally get some peace on that. Nothing really shines in the list of events, maybe consumer confidence, initial jobless claims or Core PCE might influence a little.

Earnings

This is the biggest highlight for next week. We are going to have earnings release for most of the mega caps, most of the top 20 S&P 500 companies are having their earnings next week.

There's just too many big names having earnings next week, effectively the biggest earnings week that will move the market. Biggest among them have to be Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon.

Not forgetting KO, PEP, MMM, V, MA, TWTR, PYPL, F, MCD and many other big names that will really make some impact to where the market goes. Everyone is looking at how all these top companies has performed and what are they gonna project for the next quarter.

With so many mega caps earnings, I personally don't think next week will be a one sided move. It's pretty much gonna be range bound by the constant flip of good and bad news every day.

Prediction

To go with the trend, which is currently still down, I'll take the 'below' side of the prediction. But I'm well aware that these mega cap earnings could potentially trigger a big rally as it happens often seasonally for April. So I'll keep it further away,  at the previous fib 50 level where price struggled.

SPX below 4400