3 Jul 2022 SPX Weekly

Accuracy: 23/28 (82.14%)

SPX Above 3800 - Correct

I realise I made a mistake in last week post on the economic calendar. I used this coming week's instead. Human error happens even in trading, it will just be part of the statistics. Lucky enough, the general technical analysis still works out. SPX did test the 3800 support area and came back up.

Last Week

SPX 30 Min Chart

Let's jump in straight away to the 30 min chart. Last week I was kind of expecting a correction back although it was an uptrend momentum and set my support at 3800. Within the first 2 days we immediately got pulled back onto 3800, followed by Thursday gapping down and reversed back up which eventually closed above 3800 on Friday.

Drawing a Fibonacci here shows very clear bounce off on the 61.8% mark which is also past support area that consolidated last 2 weeks. Last 3 days also tested the different levels of Fib levels.

Next Week

SPX 30 Min Chart

Zooming out a little to look at the longer trendline. We are still on a downtrend but currently nearer to the bottom 1/3 of the downtrend regression line.

Identifying the support and resistance area projected within the next few days, we have 3942 on the upside which is previous high and 3635 on previous low. 3635 is also the lowest of this bear market so far.

SPX Daily Candle Chart

Changing the timeframe to daily candle to get more insight. We see the strong bullish engulfing closure for last Friday. With this candlestick trigger pattern and momentum, we should at least see some continuation towards the upside maybe until it finds another upside resistance.

Economic Calendar

Once again apologise for last week's economic calendar mistake.

Economic Calendar

Looking at the upcoming week events again there are few more updated activities. With Monday not trading, it's a pretty short week. Wed onwards we going to have our FOMC, Fed, Inflation updates once again.

Among them the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wed 2pm seems to be the potential trigger point. The release of the meeting minutes will often trigger algo trading as certain keywords or new information surface within the minute. Good or bad, is the unknown thing.

Prediction

With the bullish momentum last Friday, I'll stay with that momentum for next week.

SPX Above 3636

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This SPX Weekly update as part of my own analysis and perspective of how I feel the market will be moving. This is not any financial advise or recommendation. It's just my own journaling and guesses to try to predict what's going to happen next week.

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