9 Oct 2022 SPX Weekly - CPI Again

Accuracy: 34/40 (85%)

SPX below 3750 - Correct

Last Week

After hitting a new low, we had a small bounce up and got rejected at the 3800 area. Slightly higher than the 3750 resistance I anticipated last week.

From the 30 min chart we see a very bearish move on Friday probably due to non farm payroll data. Now we're back near the lowest point again.

On the daily chart, we are clearly still on a downtrend hoping to find some support.

Next Week

Drawing some lines for further analysis, a potential resistance around 3720 and a downtrend support line that could potentially head towards 3450. The previous low last week was around 3580. The range I would expect next week would be between 3500-3800.

But it seems the bigger factor lies in the economic calendar.

Economic Calendar

The storyline for next week seems pretty dependent on the events. Mainly FOMC minutes and CPI once again on Wed and Thurs respectively.

The last CPI released caused the bearish move until now and here we are again on another CPI. Whether or not we break downwards going more bear or have a strong rebound I guess depends on this CPI.

Although I'm hopeful and bias that we would have a bounce, hopeful that there would be some good news after such a long bearish period. I shouldn't forget we are are currently still on a downtrend.

Prediction

I have to say this is hard. I lean towards following the trend which continues a bearish momentum.

SPX below 3800

It's hard because I'm fully aware FOMC and CPI could result in a big move. If this move is going up, 3800 is not that far.

So my story line would be first half of the week smaller range sideways, more anticipation. 2nd half will be a coin flip to decide which direction to go.

Misc

First time writing a post on phone, usually done on my PC. Keeping it short but not missing it.